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Khimik Vurnary vs Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil — Second League - Group 4 2020

Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
7/29/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary39%
×Draw29%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Vurnary
1.16
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.02

Khimik Vurnary creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 34 away

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.05
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.03

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.00
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.26

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw
68%
Khimik Vurnary or Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
71%
Draw or Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
61%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
16%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
69%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
32%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
11%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals
64%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals
27%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
55%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.03 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more
39%
level
29%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more
32%

Khimik Vurnary at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimik Vurnary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Vurnary vs Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

Khimik Vurnary and Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 4 on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Vurnary.