Khimik Vurnary 2–3 Novosibirsk: Result & Stats

Khimik Vurnary

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Novosibirsk

9/18/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary30%

×Draw29%

Novosibirsk41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik VurnaryExpected goals in this matchNovosibirsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.21

Khimik Vurnary

1.00

Novosibirsk

1.21

Novosibirsk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

1.05

creates per match

1.43

1.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary

1.05

Novosibirsk

1.43

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary

1.00

Novosibirsk

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Novosibirsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw

59%

Khimik Vurnary or Novosibirsk

71%

Draw or Novosibirsk

70%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

11%

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

63%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

26%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

8%

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

70%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

34%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

43%

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Novosibirsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Novosibirsk attack 1.43 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more

30%

level

29%

Novosibirsk scores more

41%

Novosibirsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff