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Khimik Vurnary vs Chelyabinsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
9/3/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary28%
×Draw28%
Chelyabinsk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Vurnary
0.97
Chelyabinsk
1.30

Chelyabinsk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.05
Chelyabinsk
1.60

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.00
Chelyabinsk
0.88

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw
56%
Khimik Vurnary or Chelyabinsk
72%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
72%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
10%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
62%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
25%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
7%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
73%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
37%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
39%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chelyabinsk attack 1.60 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more
28%
level
28%
Chelyabinsk scores more
44%

Chelyabinsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Vurnary vs Chelyabinsk

Chelyabinsk beat Khimik Vurnary 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Vurnary.