Armenia U19 1–4 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Armenia U19

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Spain U19

7/14/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Armenia U198%

×Draw12%

Spain U1979%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armenia U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

3.24

Armenia U19

1.01

Spain U19

3.24

Spain U19 creates 221% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

1.33

creates per match

2.81

3.67

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Armenia U19

1.33

Spain U19

2.81

allows per match

Armenia U19

3.67

Spain U19

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–47%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Armenia U19 or draw

21%

Armenia U19 or Spain U19

88%

Draw or Spain U19

92%

Winning margin

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

Spain U19 wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Armenia U19 1+ goals

64%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

27%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

96%

Spain U19 2+ goals

83%

Spain U19 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Armenia U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.81, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Armenia U19 attack 1.33 + Spain U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

Spain U19 attack 2.81 + Armenia U19 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Armenia U19 scores more

level

12%

Spain U19 scores more

79%

Spain U19 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff