Khimik Svetlogorsk 1–0 Smolevichi-Sti

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Smolevichi-Sti

A. Komarov 48'

8/24/2019

1. Division · Round 17Stadyen Chimik (Svietlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk25%

×Draw27%

Smolevichi-Sti47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchSmolevichi-Sti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.38

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.93

Smolevichi-Sti

1.38

Smolevichi-Sti creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 54 away

1.00

creates per match

1.41

1.34

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Smolevichi-Sti

1.41

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Smolevichi-Sti

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Smolevichi-Sti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

53%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Smolevichi-Sti

73%

Draw or Smolevichi-Sti

75%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

9%

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

61%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

24%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

7%

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

75%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

40%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

35%

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Smolevichi-Sti away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Smolevichi-Sti attack 1.41 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

25%

level

27%

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

47%

Smolevichi-Sti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Smolevichi-Sti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

A. Komarov

59'

A. Dzhigero← S. Levitskiy

65'

A. Vakulich← E. Shidlovskiy

67'

A. Belyavskiy← A. Arkhiptsev

68'

A. Mikhalchuk← D. Gomza

75'

A. Fedyanin← D. Borodin

78'

I. Rashchenya← I. Zayats

90+1'

I. Luzan← A. Komarov

Khimik

Smolevichi-Sti

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Petrushevski

67'▲A. Belyavskiy←▼A. Arkhiptsev

90+1'▲I. Luzan←▼A. Komarov

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

BelyavskiyLuzanGalyakLabadzeProkopenkoTankoZaytsev

Manager: A. Brazevich

59'▲A. Dzhigero←▼S. Levitskiy

65'▲A. Vakulich←▼E. Shidlovskiy

68'▲A. Mikhalchuk←▼D. Gomza

75'▲A. Fedyanin←▼D. Borodin

78'▲I. Rashchenya←▼I. Zayats

Smolevichi-Sti substitutes

DzhigeroVakulichMikhalchukFedyaninRashchenyaKleshchukMukhamedov