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Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Ruh Brest — 1. Division 2018

Khimik Svetlogorsk
Khimik Svetlogorsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
10/19/20191. Division1. Division · Round 25Stadyen Bumashnik (Svietlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk18%
×Draw22%
Ruh Brest60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Svetlogorsk
0.96
Ruh Brest
1.92

Ruh Brest creates 100% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.05
Ruh Brest
2.43

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.41
Ruh Brest
0.86

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw
40%
Khimik Svetlogorsk or Ruh Brest
78%
Draw or Ruh Brest
82%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+
6%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals
62%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals
25%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals
7%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
85%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
57%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)
24%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.05 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more
18%
level
22%
Ruh Brest scores more
60%

Ruh Brest at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–2 Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Khimik Svetlogorsk 2-0 in 1. Division on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Bumashnik (Svietlahorsk).