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Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Oshmyany — 1. Division 2018

Khimik Svetlogorsk
Khimik Svetlogorsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oshmyany
Oshmyany
7/16/20161. Division1. Division · Round 12Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk44%
×Draw26%
Oshmyany30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.47
Oshmyany
1.17

Khimik Svetlogorsk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 16 away

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.00
Oshmyany
1.00

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.34
Oshmyany
1.94

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par
Oshmyany+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Oshmyany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw
70%
Khimik Svetlogorsk or Oshmyany
74%
Draw or Oshmyany
56%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+
21%
Oshmyany wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals
77%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals
43%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals
18%
Oshmyany 1+ goals
69%
Oshmyany 2+ goals
33%
Oshmyany 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)
59%
Oshmyany (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Oshmyany away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Oshmyany defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Oshmyany attack 1.00 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more
44%
level
26%
Oshmyany scores more
30%

Khimik Svetlogorsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khimik Svetlogorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Oshmyany

Khimik Svetlogorsk beat Oshmyany 2-1 in 1. Division on July 16, 2016.

The match was played at Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk).