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Khimik Svetlogorsk vs NFK Minsk — 1. Division 2018

Khimik Svetlogorsk
Khimik Svetlogorsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NFK Minsk
NFK Minsk
9/20/20151. Division1. Division · Round 22Stadyen Bumashnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk26%
×Draw26%
NFK Minsk47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.02
NFK Minsk
1.46

NFK Minsk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.02
NFK Minsk
1.55

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.37
NFK Minsk
1.02

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par
NFK Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

NFK Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw
53%
Khimik Svetlogorsk or NFK Minsk
74%
Draw or NFK Minsk
74%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+
10%
NFK Minsk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals
64%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals
27%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals
8%
NFK Minsk 1+ goals
77%
NFK Minsk 2+ goals
43%
NFK Minsk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)
36%
NFK Minsk (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 57 matches

NFK Minsk away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.02 + NFK Minsk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

NFK Minsk attack 1.55 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more
26%
level
26%
NFK Minsk scores more
47%

NFK Minsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NFK Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–2 NFK Minsk

NFK Minsk beat Khimik Svetlogorsk 2-0 in 1. Division on September 20, 2015.

The match was played at Stadyen Bumashnik in Svetlahorsk.