Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–1 Naftan: Result & Stats

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Naftan

A. Yanchenko 85'

11/8/2020

1. Division · Round 25Stadyen Chimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk30%

×Draw26%

Naftan44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchNaftan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.46

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.14

Naftan

1.46

Naftan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

1.58

1.34

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Naftan

1.58

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Naftan

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Naftan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

56%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Naftan

74%

Draw or Naftan

70%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

12%

Naftan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

68%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

32%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

11%

Naftan 1+ goals

77%

Naftan 2+ goals

43%

Naftan 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

40%

Naftan (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Naftan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Naftan defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Naftan attack 1.58 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

30%

level

26%

Naftan scores more

44%

Naftan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Naftan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Golenko

44'

A. Arkhiptsev

68'

D. Trapashko← A. Kucherov

80'

A. Gudov← E. Aliev

85'

A. Yanchenko

87'

D. Trapashko

88'

A. Labadze← D. Yakhno

89'

N. Kozlov← A. Kleshchenok

90+1'

A. Yanchenko

Khimik

Naftan

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Cherepnev

88'▲A. Labadze←▼D. Yakhno

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

Labadze

Manager: T. Chopik

68'▲D. Trapashko←▼A. Kucherov

80'▲A. Gudov←▼E. Aliev

89'▲N. Kozlov←▼A. Kleshchenok

Naftan substitutes

TrapashkoGudovKozlovKrasiyShubin