Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–4 Lokomotiv Gomel

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Lokomotiv Gomel

P. Markov 87'

A. Solovey 63', 1'

S. Bondarenko 33'

11/15/2020

1. Division · Round 14Stadyen Chimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk31%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv Gomel42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Gomel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.36

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.14

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.36

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 19% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 120 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

1.34

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.38

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

58%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Lokomotiv Gomel

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel

69%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

13%

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

68%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

32%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

11%

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

43%

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.38 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

31%

level

27%

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

42%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Solovey

22'

S. Kolybenko

33'

S. Bondarenko

46'

E. Barsukov← V. Belashevich

63'

A. Solovey

71'

I. Shabanov← D. Sviridenko

73'

P. Trofimchuk← N. Galuza

76'

M. Vospukov← S. Bondarenko

83'

E. Khanenya← P. Klenje

87'

P. Markov

Khimik

Lokomotiv

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: O. Cherepnev

73'▲P. Trofimchuk←▼N. Galuza

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

TrofimchukLabadze

Manager: A. Gorovtsov

46'▲E. Barsukov←▼V. Belashevich

71'▲I. Shabanov←▼D. Sviridenko

76'▲M. Vospukov←▼S. Bondarenko

83'▲E. Khanenya←▼P. Klenje

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

BarsukovShabanovVospukovKhanenya

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Lokomotiv Gomel

Lokomotiv Gomel beat Khimik Svetlogorsk 4-0 in 1. Division on November 15, 2020.

Goals: A. Solovey (1', 63'), S. Bondarenko (33'), P. Markov (87').

The match was played at Stadyen Chimik in Svietlahorsk.

Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Lokomotiv Gomel — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Lokomotiv Gomel