Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–0 Lida: Result & Stats

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lida

6/23/2018

1. Division · Round 12Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk34%

×Draw26%

Lida40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchLida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.40

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.28

Lida

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 131 away

1.00

creates per match

1.46

1.34

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Lida

1.46

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Lida

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Lida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Lida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

60%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Lida

74%

Draw or Lida

66%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

15%

Lida wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

72%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

37%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

14%

Lida 1+ goals

75%

Lida 2+ goals

41%

Lida 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

46%

Lida (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Lida away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.56 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Lida defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lida attack 1.46 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

34%

level

26%

Lida scores more

40%

Lida at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

A. Bombel← A. Lyasyuk

59'

S. Kovalyuk← S. Gnedko

63'

D. Khalimonchikov← O. Petrushevskiy

74'

A. Dobrovolskiy← S. Levitski

78'

A. Lozko← I. Lisitsa

89'

A. Yarmantovich← S. Korsak

Khimik

Lida

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Petrushevski

63'▲D. Khalimonchikov←▼O. Petrushevskiy

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

Khalimonchikov

Manager: P. Kachura

56'▲A. Bombel←▼A. Lyasyuk

59'▲S. Kovalyuk←▼S. Gnedko

74'▲A. Dobrovolskiy←▼S. Levitski

78'▲A. Lozko←▼I. Lisitsa

89'▲A. Yarmantovich←▼S. Korsak

Lida substitutes

BombelKovalyukDobrovolskiyLozkoYarmantovich

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Lida

Khimik Svetlogorsk and Lida drew 0-0 in 1. Division on June 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk).

Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Lida — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Lida