Khimik Svetlogorsk 1–2 Belshina: Result & Stats

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Belshina

K. Shokurov 62'

E. Skoblikov 63'

A. Yushin 14'

9/21/2019

1. Division · Round 21Stadyen Chimik (Svietlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk25%

×Draw24%

Belshina51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.71

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.11

Belshina

1.71

Belshina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 79 away

1.00

creates per match

2.09

1.34

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Belshina

2.09

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Belshina

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

49%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Belshina

76%

Draw or Belshina

75%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

9%

Belshina wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

67%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

30%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

10%

Belshina 1+ goals

82%

Belshina 2+ goals

51%

Belshina 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

32%

Belshina (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Belshina away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.23 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Belshina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Belshina attack 2.09 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

25%

level

24%

Belshina scores more

51%

Belshina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Belshina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Yushin

46'

A. Belyavskiy← A. Komarov

54'

A. Labadze← M. Tanko

62'

K. Shokurov

63'

E. Skoblikov

67'

D. Trapashko← K. Sidorenko

69'

A. Arkhiptsev← A. Galyak

72'

K. Nasanovich← I. Luzan

82'

K. Ermakovich← V. Solanovich

90+3'

D. Turlin← A. Yushin

Khimik

Belshina

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Petrushevski

46'▲A. Belyavskiy←▼A. Komarov

54'▲A. Labadze←▼M. Tanko

69'▲A. Arkhiptsev←▼A. Galyak

72'▲K. Nasanovich←▼I. Luzan

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

BelyavskiyLabadzeArkhiptsevNasanovichZaytsev

Manager: E. Gradoboev

67'▲D. Trapashko←▼K. Sidorenko

82'▲K. Ermakovich←▼V. Solanovich

90+3'▲D. Turlin←▼A. Yushin

Belshina substitutes

TrapashkoErmakovichTurlinDylevskiyRutskiyTuranokShkurko

1. Division: Khimik Svetlogorsk 1–2 Belshina

Belshina beat Khimik Svetlogorsk 2-1 in 1. Division on September 21, 2019.

Goals: A. Yushin (14'), K. Shokurov (62'), E. Skoblikov (63').

The match was played at Stadyen Chimik (Svietlahorsk).

Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Belshina — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Khimik Svetlogorsk 1–2 Belshina