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Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Baranovichi — 1. Division 2018

Khimik Svetlogorsk
Khimik Svetlogorsk
FT
3 – 0
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
10/27/20181. Division1. Division · Round 28Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk42%
×Draw26%
Baranovichi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.46
Baranovichi
1.23

Khimik Svetlogorsk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 116 away

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.02
Baranovichi
1.08

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.37
Baranovichi
1.90

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par
Baranovichi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Baranovichi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw
68%
Khimik Svetlogorsk or Baranovichi
74%
Draw or Baranovichi
58%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+
20%
Baranovichi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals
77%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals
43%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals
18%
Baranovichi 1+ goals
71%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
35%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)
57%
Baranovichi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 57 matches

Baranovichi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.90 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.02 + Baranovichi defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.46

Baranovichi attack 1.08 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more
42%
level
26%
Baranovichi scores more
32%

Khimik Svetlogorsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khimik Svetlogorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Svetlogorsk vs Baranovichi

Khimik Svetlogorsk beat Baranovichi 3-0 in 1. Division on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk).