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Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Torpedo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
8/6/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk39%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Moskva II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.27
Torpedo Moskva II
1.15

Khimik Dzerzhinsk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 24 away

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.22
Torpedo Moskva II
1.13

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.16
Torpedo Moskva II
1.33

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw
67%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Torpedo Moskva II
73%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva II
61%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
17%
Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
72%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
36%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
14%
Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
54%
Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
39%
level
27%
Torpedo Moskva II scores more
33%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimik Dzerzhinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Torpedo Moskva II

Khimik Dzerzhinsk and Torpedo Moskva II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Dzerzhinsk.