Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Broke Boys — Cup 2019

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Broke Boys
Broke Boys
8/22/2024CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk19%
×Draw27%
Broke Boys54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.71
Broke Boys
1.42

Broke Boys creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.75
Broke Boys
1.33

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.50
Broke Boys
0.67

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par
Broke Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Broke Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw
46%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Broke Boys
73%
Draw or Broke Boys
81%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
5%
Broke Boys wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
51%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
16%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
4%
Broke Boys 1+ goals
76%
Broke Boys 2+ goals
41%
Broke Boys 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
26%
Broke Boys (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Broke Boys away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 0.75 + Broke Boys defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Broke Boys attack 1.33 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
19%
level
27%
Broke Boys scores more
54%

Broke Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Broke Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Broke Boys

Khimik Dzerzhinsk beat Broke Boys 1-0 in Cup on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Dzerzhinsk.