Khimik-Arsenal 0–3 Saturn Ramenskoye

Khimik-Arsenal

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Saturn Ramenskoye

10/18/2020

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal43%

×Draw24%

Saturn Ramenskoye33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik-ArsenalExpected goals in this matchSaturn Ramenskoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.40

Khimik-Arsenal

1.65

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.40

Khimik-Arsenal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.73

creates per match

1.32

1.47

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal

1.73

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.32

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal

1.47

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw

67%

Khimik-Arsenal or Saturn Ramenskoye

76%

Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye

57%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+

22%

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals

81%

Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals

49%

Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals

23%

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

75%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

41%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)

57%

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.73 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more

43%

level

24%

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

33%

Khimik-Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff