Khimik-Arsenal 3–1 Sakhalin: Result & Stats

Khimik-Arsenal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sakhalin

11/3/2020

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal53%

×Draw23%

Sakhalin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik-ArsenalExpected goals in this matchSakhalin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.12

Khimik-Arsenal

1.79

Sakhalin

1.12

Khimik-Arsenal creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

1.73

creates per match

0.77

1.47

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal

1.73

Sakhalin

0.77

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal

1.47

Sakhalin

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Sakhalin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw

76%

Khimik-Arsenal or Sakhalin

77%

Draw or Sakhalin

47%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+

29%

Sakhalin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals

83%

Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals

53%

Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals

26%

Sakhalin 1+ goals

67%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

31%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)

69%

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.73 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more

53%

level

23%

Sakhalin scores more

24%

Khimik-Arsenal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff