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Khimik-Arsenal vs Kvant — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimik-Arsenal
Khimik-Arsenal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kvant
Kvant
10/24/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal56%
×Draw22%
Kvant22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik-Arsenal
1.99
Kvant
1.18

Khimik-Arsenal creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal
1.73
Kvant
0.88

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal
1.47
Kvant
2.26

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par
Kvant+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Kvant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw
78%
Khimik-Arsenal or Kvant
78%
Draw or Kvant
44%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+
33%
Kvant wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals
86%
Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals
59%
Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals
32%
Kvant 1+ goals
69%
Kvant 2+ goals
33%
Kvant 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)
71%
Kvant (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Kvant away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.73 + Kvant defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kvant attack 0.88 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more
56%
level
22%
Kvant scores more
22%

Khimik-Arsenal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik-Arsenal vs Kvant

Khimik-Arsenal and Kvant drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Novomoskovsk.