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Khimik-Arsenal vs Kaluga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Khimik-Arsenal
Khimik-Arsenal
FT
2 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
1/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal78%
×Draw15%
Kaluga7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik-Arsenal
2.34
Kaluga
0.53

Khimik-Arsenal creates 342% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal
2.25
Kaluga
0.57

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal
0.50
Kaluga
2.43

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw
93%
Khimik-Arsenal or Kaluga
85%
Draw or Kaluga
22%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+
54%
Kaluga wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals
90%
Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals
67%
Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals
41%
Kaluga 1+ goals
41%
Kaluga 2+ goals
10%
Kaluga 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)
92%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 2.25 + Kaluga defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.34

Kaluga attack 0.57 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more
78%
level
15%
Kaluga scores more
7%

Khimik-Arsenal at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Khimik-Arsenal 2–0 Kaluga

Khimik-Arsenal beat Kaluga 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2020.