Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Shahrdari Hamedan

Kheybar Khorramabad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shahrdari Hamedan

5/5/2022

Azadegan League · Round 28Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad55%

×Draw29%

Shahrdari Hamedan17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kheybar KhorramabadExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Hamedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.59

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.32

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.59

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 124% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

1.67

creates per match

0.52

0.66

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.67

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.52

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.66

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw

83%

Kheybar Khorramabad or Shahrdari Hamedan

71%

Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan

45%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

26%

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

73%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

38%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

15%

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

45%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

12%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

77%

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.32

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

55%

level

29%

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

17%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff