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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
5 – 0
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
5/26/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad59%
×Draw25%
Oxin Alborz16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.62
Oxin Alborz
0.70

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 131% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
84%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Oxin Alborz
75%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
41%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
33%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
80%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
48%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
22%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
50%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
16%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
79%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
59%
level
25%
Oxin Alborz scores more
16%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Kheybar Khorramabad 5–0 Oxin Alborz

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Oxin Alborz 5-0 in Azadegan League on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.