Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Kheybar Khorramabad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

10/8/2023

Azadegan League · Round 6Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad52%

×Draw27%

Naft Masjed Soleyman21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kheybar KhorramabadExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.80

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.44

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.80

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 80% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

1.67

creates per match

0.94

0.66

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.67

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.94

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.66

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw

79%

Kheybar Khorramabad or Naft Masjed Soleyman

73%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

48%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

26%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

76%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

42%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

18%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

55%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

19%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

71%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

52%

level

27%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

21%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff