Kheybar Khorramabad 3–2 Machine Sazi FC

Kheybar Khorramabad

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Machine Sazi FC

1/1/2022

Azadegan League · Round 12Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad74%

×Draw17%

Machine Sazi FC9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kheybar KhorramabadExpected goals in this matchMachine Sazi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.67

Kheybar Khorramabad

2.33

Machine Sazi FC

0.67

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 248% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

1.67

creates per match

0.67

0.66

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.67

Machine Sazi FC

0.67

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.66

Machine Sazi FC

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Machine Sazi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw

91%

Kheybar Khorramabad or Machine Sazi FC

83%

Draw or Machine Sazi FC

26%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

51%

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

90%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

67%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

41%

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

49%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

15%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

89%

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

74%

level

17%

Machine Sazi FC scores more

9%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff