Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kheybar Khorramabad vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
11/29/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad66%
×Draw22%
Khalij Fars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.75
Khalij Fars
0.57

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 207% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
88%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Khalij Fars
78%
Draw or Khalij Fars
34%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
39%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
83%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
52%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
25%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
43%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
11%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
85%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.75

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
66%
level
22%
Khalij Fars scores more
12%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Khalij Fars

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Khalij Fars 3-0 in Azadegan League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.