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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
3 – 1
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
12/2/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad55%
×Draw26%
Esteghlal Mollasani19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.49
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.74

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 101% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
81%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Esteghlal Mollasani
74%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
45%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
28%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
77%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
44%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
19%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
52%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
17%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
75%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
55%
level
26%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
19%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Kheybar Khorramabad 3–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Esteghlal Mollasani 3-1 in Azadegan League on December 2, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.