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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
4/14/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani33%
×Draw32%
Kheybar Khorramabad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.91
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
65%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Kheybar Khorramabad
68%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
67%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
12%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
60%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
23%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
6%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
61%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
24%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
49%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
33%
level
32%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
35%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 2–1 Kheybar Khorramabad

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Kheybar Khorramabad 2-1 in Azadegan League on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.