Khenchela 1–0 USM Alger: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Khenchela

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

USM Alger

A. Sameur 19' (pen)

2/16/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Hamam Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Khenchela46%

×Draw30%

USM Alger24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhenchelaExpected goals in this matchUSM Alger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.76

Khenchela

1.19

USM Alger

0.76

Khenchela creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 123 away

1.23

creates per match

0.87

0.65

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Khenchela

1.23

USM Alger

0.87

allows per match

Khenchela

0.65

USM Alger

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khenchela+0.00on par

USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khenchela ↓

USM Alger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Khenchela or draw

76%

Khenchela or USM Alger

70%

Draw or USM Alger

54%

Winning margin

Khenchela wins by 2+

20%

USM Alger wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Khenchela 1+ goals

70%

Khenchela 2+ goals

33%

Khenchela 3+ goals

12%

USM Alger 1+ goals

53%

USM Alger 2+ goals

18%

USM Alger 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Khenchela (draw refunded)

66%

USM Alger (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khenchela at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khenchela attack 1.23 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

USM Alger attack 0.87 + Khenchela defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khenchela scores more

46%

level

30%

USM Alger scores more

24%

Khenchela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khenchela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

19'

A. SameurPenalty

36'

I Merili← S. Boukhanchouche

45'

A. Hoggas← A. Sameur

59'

H. Ogbi Benhadouche← D. Samadiaré

63'

J. Chirani← H. Dehiri

63'

A. Kanou← O. Bellatreche

65'

73'

K. Sabouni← I. Yaiche

79'

85'

87'

87'

90+6'

Khenchela

USM

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Zelfani

45'▲A. Hoggas←▼A. Sameur

59'▲H. Ogbi Benhadouche←▼D. Samadiaré

73'▲K. Sabouni←▼I. Yaiche

Khenchela substitutes

HoggasBenhadoucheSabouni

Manager: Juan Garrido

36'▲I Merili←▼S. Boukhanchouche

63'▲J. Chirani←▼H. Dehiri

63'▲A. Kanou←▼O. Bellatreche

USM Alger substitutes

MeriliChiraniKanou