Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khenchela vs US Biskra — Ligue 1 2018

Khenchela
Khenchela
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
US Biskra
US Biskra
12/20/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Hamam Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Khenchela54%
×Draw28%
US Biskra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khenchela
1.36
US Biskra
0.65

Khenchela creates 109% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 92 away

creates per match

Khenchela
1.23
US Biskra
0.64

allows per match

Khenchela
0.65
US Biskra
1.50

finishing

Khenchela+0.00on par
US Biskra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khenchela ↓

US Biskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khenchela or draw
82%
Khenchela or US Biskra
72%
Draw or US Biskra
46%

Winning margin

Khenchela wins by 2+
26%
US Biskra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Khenchela 1+ goals
74%
Khenchela 2+ goals
39%
Khenchela 3+ goals
16%
US Biskra 1+ goals
48%
US Biskra 2+ goals
14%
US Biskra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khenchela (draw refunded)
75%
US Biskra (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khenchela at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

US Biskra away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khenchela attack 1.23 + US Biskra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

US Biskra attack 0.64 + Khenchela defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khenchela scores more
54%
level
28%
US Biskra scores more
18%

Khenchela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Khenchela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khenchela vs US Biskra

Khenchela and US Biskra drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on December 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Hamam Ammar in Khenchela.