Khenchela 2–2 Paradou AC: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Khenchela

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Paradou AC

4/18/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Hamam Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Khenchela46%

×Draw29%

Paradou AC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhenchelaExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.86

Khenchela

1.27

Paradou AC

0.86

Khenchela creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 121 away

1.23

creates per match

1.08

0.65

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Khenchela

1.23

Paradou AC

1.08

allows per match

Khenchela

0.65

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khenchela+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khenchela ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Khenchela or draw

75%

Khenchela or Paradou AC

71%

Draw or Paradou AC

54%

Winning margin

Khenchela wins by 2+

21%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khenchela 1+ goals

72%

Khenchela 2+ goals

36%

Khenchela 3+ goals

14%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

58%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

21%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Khenchela (draw refunded)

65%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khenchela at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khenchela attack 1.23 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Paradou AC attack 1.08 + Khenchela defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khenchela scores more

46%

level

29%

Paradou AC scores more

25%

Khenchela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khenchela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff