Khenchela 0–1 Olympique Akbou: Result & Stats

Khenchela

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Akbou

2/28/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 21Amar Hamam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Khenchela45%

×Draw30%

Olympique Akbou24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhenchelaExpected goals in this matchOlympique Akbou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.78

Khenchela

1.18

Olympique Akbou

0.78

Khenchela creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.23

creates per match

0.90

0.65

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Khenchela

1.23

Olympique Akbou

0.90

allows per match

Khenchela

0.65

Olympique Akbou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khenchela+0.00on par

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khenchela ↓

Olympique Akbou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Khenchela or draw

76%

Khenchela or Olympique Akbou

70%

Draw or Olympique Akbou

55%

Winning margin

Khenchela wins by 2+

20%

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Khenchela 1+ goals

69%

Khenchela 2+ goals

33%

Khenchela 3+ goals

12%

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals

54%

Olympique Akbou 2+ goals

18%

Olympique Akbou 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Khenchela (draw refunded)

65%

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khenchela at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khenchela attack 1.23 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + Khenchela defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Khenchela scores more

45%

level

30%

Olympique Akbou scores more

24%

Khenchela at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Khenchela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff