Khelang United 0–1 See Kwae: Result & Stats

Khelang United

0 – 1

See Kwae

9/2/2023

League Cup · 1st Qualifying RoundLampang Rajabhat University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khelang United28%

×Draw25%

See Kwae47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khelang UnitedExpected goals in this matchSee Kwae

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.63

Khelang United

1.21

See Kwae

1.63

See Kwae creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

1.00

2.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Khelang United

0.75

See Kwae

1.00

allows per match

Khelang United

2.25

See Kwae

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khelang United+0.00on par

See Kwae+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khelang United ↓

See Kwae →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Khelang United or draw

53%

Khelang United or See Kwae

75%

Draw or See Kwae

72%

Winning margin

Khelang United wins by 2+

12%

See Kwae wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Khelang United 1+ goals

70%

Khelang United 2+ goals

34%

Khelang United 3+ goals

12%

See Kwae 1+ goals

80%

See Kwae 2+ goals

48%

See Kwae 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Khelang United (draw refunded)

38%

See Kwae (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Khelang United at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

See Kwae away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Khelang United attack 0.75 + See Kwae defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

See Kwae attack 1.00 + Khelang United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khelang United scores more

28%

level

25%

See Kwae scores more

47%

See Kwae at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "See Kwae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff