Khelang United 1–6 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Khelang United

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Nong Bua Pitchaya

11/27/2025

League Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khelang United4%

×Draw8%

Nong Bua Pitchaya88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khelang UnitedExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

3.96

Khelang United

0.88

Nong Bua Pitchaya

3.96

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 350% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

5.67

2.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Khelang United

0.75

Nong Bua Pitchaya

5.67

allows per match

Khelang United

2.25

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khelang United+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khelang United ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–39%

0–49%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Khelang United or draw

12%

Khelang United or Nong Bua Pitchaya

92%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

96%

Winning margin

Khelang United wins by 2+

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

73%

Team goals

Khelang United 1+ goals

59%

Khelang United 2+ goals

22%

Khelang United 3+ goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

98%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

89%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

Khelang United (draw refunded)

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Khelang United at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 5.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Khelang United attack 0.75 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 5.67 + Khelang United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Khelang United scores more

level

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

88%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff