Khatlon 3–1 Kuktosh: Result & Stats | Vysshaya Liga

Khatlon

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kuktosh

K. Turakhonov 78'

X. Uzokov 45+1'

S. Azizov 13'

M. Kurbonov 33'

6/2/2024

Vysshaya Liga · Round 9Republican Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Khatlon52%

×Draw23%

Kuktosh25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhatlonExpected goals in this matchKuktosh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.20

Khatlon

1.85

Kuktosh

1.20

Khatlon creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 53 away

1.31

creates per match

1.26

1.14

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Khatlon

1.31

Kuktosh

1.26

allows per match

Khatlon

1.14

Kuktosh

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par

Kuktosh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Kuktosh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw

75%

Khatlon or Kuktosh

77%

Draw or Kuktosh

48%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+

30%

Kuktosh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals

84%

Khatlon 2+ goals

55%

Khatlon 3+ goals

28%

Kuktosh 1+ goals

70%

Kuktosh 2+ goals

34%

Kuktosh 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)

68%

Kuktosh (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Kuktosh away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Kuktosh defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kuktosh attack 1.26 + Khatlon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khatlon scores more

52%

level

23%

Kuktosh scores more

25%

Khatlon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

S. Azizov

33'

M. Kurbonov

45+1'

X. Uzokov

78'

K. Turakhonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff