Khatlon 2–1 Khujand: Result & Stats | Vysshaya Liga

Khatlon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Khujand

T. Bikatal 13'

S. Asrorov 5'

A. Serdyuk 66'

6/23/2025

Vysshaya Liga · Round 13Vaxş-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Khatlon43%

×Draw27%

Khujand30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhatlonExpected goals in this matchKhujand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.06

Khatlon

1.34

Khujand

1.06

Khatlon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.55

creates per match

1.31

0.82

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Khatlon

1.55

Khujand

1.31

allows per match

Khatlon

0.82

Khujand

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par

Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Khujand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw

70%

Khatlon or Khujand

73%

Draw or Khujand

57%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+

20%

Khujand wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals

74%

Khatlon 2+ goals

39%

Khatlon 3+ goals

15%

Khujand 1+ goals

65%

Khujand 2+ goals

29%

Khujand 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)

59%

Khujand (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.55 + Khujand defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Khujand attack 1.31 + Khatlon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khatlon scores more

43%

level

27%

Khujand scores more

30%

Khatlon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

13'

49'

66'

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff