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Khatlon vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
4/16/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 4Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Khatlon44%
×Draw26%
Khosilot Farkhor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.43
Khosilot Farkhor
1.11

Khatlon creates 29% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.31
Khosilot Farkhor
1.04

allows per match

Khatlon
1.18
Khosilot Farkhor
1.55

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
71%
Khatlon or Khosilot Farkhor
74%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
56%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
21%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
76%
Khatlon 2+ goals
42%
Khatlon 3+ goals
17%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
67%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
30%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
60%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.04 + Khatlon defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khatlon scores more
44%
level
26%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
29%

Khatlon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Khosilot Farkhor

Khatlon beat Khosilot Farkhor 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.