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Khatlon vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
10/8/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Khatlon47%
×Draw26%
Istaravshan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.53
Istaravshan
1.09

Khatlon creates 40% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.31
Istaravshan
1.00

allows per match

Khatlon
1.18
Istaravshan
1.75

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
73%
Khatlon or Istaravshan
74%
Draw or Istaravshan
53%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
24%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
78%
Khatlon 2+ goals
45%
Khatlon 3+ goals
20%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
66%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
30%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
64%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Istaravshan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

Istaravshan attack 1.00 + Khatlon defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khatlon scores more
47%
level
26%
Istaravshan scores more
27%

Khatlon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Istaravshan

Khatlon beat Istaravshan 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.