Khatlon 0–1 Barki Tajik: Result & Stats

Khatlon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barki Tajik

Unknown 90+4'

8/17/2024

Vysshaya Liga · Round 14Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Khatlon42%

×Draw27%

Barki Tajik31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhatlonExpected goals in this matchBarki Tajik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Khatlon

1.36

Barki Tajik

1.13

Khatlon creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 39 away

1.34

creates per match

1.26

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Khatlon

1.34

Barki Tajik

1.26

allows per match

Khatlon

1.00

Barki Tajik

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par

Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Barki Tajik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw

69%

Khatlon or Barki Tajik

73%

Draw or Barki Tajik

58%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+

20%

Barki Tajik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals

74%

Khatlon 2+ goals

39%

Khatlon 3+ goals

16%

Barki Tajik 1+ goals

68%

Barki Tajik 2+ goals

31%

Barki Tajik 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)

57%

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.34 + Barki Tajik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Barki Tajik attack 1.26 + Khatlon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khatlon scores more

42%

level

27%

Barki Tajik scores more

31%

Khatlon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff