Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khangarid vs Khovd — Premier League 2020

Khangarid
Khangarid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khovd
Khovd
3/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Mongolian Football Federation Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Khangarid50%
×Draw19%
Khovd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khangarid
2.66
Khovd
2.08

Khangarid creates 28% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 56 away

creates per match

Khangarid
2.19
Khovd
1.88

allows per match

Khangarid
2.27
Khovd
3.13

finishing

Khangarid+0.00on par
Khovd+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khangarid ↓

Khovd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Khangarid or draw
69%
Khangarid or Khovd
81%
Draw or Khovd
50%

Winning margin

Khangarid wins by 2+
32%
Khovd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Khangarid 1+ goals
93%
Khangarid 2+ goals
74%
Khangarid 3+ goals
49%
Khovd 1+ goals
87%
Khovd 2+ goals
61%
Khovd 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Khangarid (draw refunded)
62%
Khovd (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khangarid at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.27 · 75 matches

Khovd away — creates 1.88, concedes 3.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khangarid attack 2.19 + Khovd defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.66

Khovd attack 1.88 + Khangarid defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khangarid scores more
50%
level
19%
Khovd scores more
31%

Khangarid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khangarid vs Khovd

Khangarid beat Khovd 1-0 in Premier League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Mongolian Football Federation Training Ground in Zuunmod.