Khangarid 1–9 BCH Lions: Result & Stats

Khangarid

FT

1 – 9

HT: 0 – 4

BCH Lions

10/8/2022

Premier League · Round 5Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Khangarid73%

×Draw13%

BCH Lions15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhangaridExpected goals in this matchBCH Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.37

2.06

Khangarid

4.37

BCH Lions

2.06

Khangarid creates 112% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

2.19

creates per match

1.85

2.27

allows per match

6.54

creates per match

Khangarid

2.19

BCH Lions

1.85

allows per match

Khangarid

2.27

BCH Lions

6.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khangarid+0.00on par

BCH Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khangarid ↓

BCH Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

86%14%4.5

73%27%

Double chance

Khangarid or draw

85%

Khangarid or BCH Lions

87%

Draw or BCH Lions

27%

Winning margin

Khangarid wins by 2+

56%

BCH Lions wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Khangarid 1+ goals

99%

Khangarid 2+ goals

92%

Khangarid 3+ goals

78%

BCH Lions 1+ goals

87%

BCH Lions 2+ goals

61%

BCH Lions 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Khangarid (draw refunded)

83%

BCH Lions (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khangarid at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.27 · 75 matches

BCH Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 6.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khangarid attack 2.19 + BCH Lions defence 6.54 → ÷2 → 4.37

BCH Lions attack 1.85 + Khangarid defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Khangarid scores more

73%

level

13%

BCH Lions scores more

15%

Khangarid at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff