Khangarid 8–2 Anduud City: Result & Stats

Khangarid

FT

8 – 2

Anduud City

8/22/2020

Premier League · Round 10Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khangarid63%

×Draw17%

Anduud City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhangaridExpected goals in this matchAnduud City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.75

Khangarid

3.04

Anduud City

1.75

Khangarid creates 74% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 9 away

2.19

creates per match

1.22

2.27

allows per match

3.89

creates per match

Khangarid

2.19

Anduud City

1.22

allows per match

Khangarid

2.27

Anduud City

3.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khangarid+0.00on par

Anduud City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khangarid ↓

Anduud City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Khangarid or draw

79%

Khangarid or Anduud City

83%

Draw or Anduud City

37%

Winning margin

Khangarid wins by 2+

43%

Anduud City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Khangarid 1+ goals

95%

Khangarid 2+ goals

80%

Khangarid 3+ goals

57%

Anduud City 1+ goals

83%

Anduud City 2+ goals

52%

Anduud City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Khangarid (draw refunded)

75%

Anduud City (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khangarid at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.27 · 75 matches

Anduud City away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khangarid attack 2.19 + Anduud City defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 3.04

Anduud City attack 1.22 + Khangarid defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Khangarid scores more

63%

level

17%

Anduud City scores more

21%

Khangarid at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff