Khalij Fars 1–1 Naft Gachsaran: Result & Stats

Khalij Fars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Naft Gachsaran

10/21/2023

Azadegan League · Round 8Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars35%

×Draw31%

Naft Gachsaran34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khalij FarsExpected goals in this matchNaft Gachsaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.98

Khalij Fars

1.01

Naft Gachsaran

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

0.88

creates per match

0.80

1.16

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Khalij Fars

0.88

Naft Gachsaran

0.80

allows per match

Khalij Fars

1.16

Naft Gachsaran

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Naft Gachsaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw

66%

Khalij Fars or Naft Gachsaran

69%

Draw or Naft Gachsaran

65%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

13%

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

64%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

27%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

8%

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

62%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

26%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

51%

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Khalij Fars scores more

35%

level

31%

Naft Gachsaran scores more

34%

Khalij Fars at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Khalij Fars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff