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Khalij Fars vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
12/5/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars31%
×Draw32%
Ario Eslamshahr37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalij Fars
0.86
Ario Eslamshahr
0.97

Ario Eslamshahr creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khalij Fars
0.88
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Khalij Fars
1.16
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw
63%
Khalij Fars or Ario Eslamshahr
68%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
69%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+
10%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals
58%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
21%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
6%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
62%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
25%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
46%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khalij Fars scores more
31%
level
32%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
37%

Ario Eslamshahr at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khalij Fars 0–2 Ario Eslamshahr

Ario Eslamshahr beat Khalij Fars 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.