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Khalidiya vs Tractor Sazi — AFC Cup 2018

Khalidiya
Khalidiya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Saziadvanced
2/11/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Round of 16Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khalidiya25%
×Draw22%
Tractor Sazi53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalidiya
1.33
Tractor Sazi
2.02

Tractor Sazi creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Khalidiya
2.00
Tractor Sazi
2.67

allows per match

Khalidiya
1.38
Tractor Sazi
0.67

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw
47%
Khalidiya or Tractor Sazi
78%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
75%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+
11%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals
74%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
38%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
15%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
87%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
60%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)
32%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 2.00 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tractor Sazi attack 2.67 + Khalidiya defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Khalidiya scores more
25%
level
22%
Tractor Sazi scores more
53%

Tractor Sazi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Khalidiya 1–2 Tractor Sazi

Tractor Sazi beat Khalidiya 2-1 in AFC Cup on February 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.