Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khalidiya vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Khalidiya
Khalidiya
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
12/4/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khalidiya48%
×Draw22%
Altyn Asyr30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalidiya
1.93
Altyn Asyr
1.48

Khalidiya creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Khalidiya
2.00
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Khalidiya
1.38
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw
70%
Khalidiya or Altyn Asyr
78%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
52%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+
27%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals
85%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
57%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
30%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
77%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
43%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)
62%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 2.00 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Khalidiya defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khalidiya scores more
48%
level
22%
Altyn Asyr scores more
30%

Khalidiya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khalidiya vs Altyn Asyr

Khalidiya beat Altyn Asyr 4-0 in AFC Cup on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.