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Khalidiya vs Al Riffa — Premier League 2019

Khalidiya
Khalidiya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Riffa
Al Riffa
4/4/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khalidiya40%
×Draw25%
Al Riffa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalidiya
1.46
Al Riffa
1.33

Khalidiya creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 71 away

creates per match

Khalidiya
1.94
Al Riffa
1.82

allows per match

Khalidiya
0.85
Al Riffa
0.97

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par
Al Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Al Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw
66%
Khalidiya or Al Riffa
75%
Draw or Al Riffa
60%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+
19%
Al Riffa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals
77%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
43%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
18%
Al Riffa 1+ goals
74%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
38%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)
54%
Al Riffa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Al Riffa away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 1.94 + Al Riffa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Riffa attack 1.82 + Khalidiya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khalidiya scores more
40%
level
25%
Al Riffa scores more
34%

Khalidiya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khalidiya vs Al Riffa

Khalidiya beat Al Riffa 2-1 in Premier League on April 4, 2026.