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Khalidiya vs Al Najma — Premier League 2019

Khalidiya
Khalidiya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al Najma
Al Najma
5/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khalidiya54%
×Draw24%
Al Najma22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalidiya
1.71
Al Najma
0.98

Khalidiya creates 74% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 63 away

creates per match

Khalidiya
1.94
Al Najma
1.10

allows per match

Khalidiya
0.85
Al Najma
1.49

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw
78%
Khalidiya or Al Najma
76%
Draw or Al Najma
46%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+
30%
Al Najma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals
82%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
51%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
24%
Al Najma 1+ goals
62%
Al Najma 2+ goals
26%
Al Najma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)
72%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 1.94 + Al Najma defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

Al Najma attack 1.10 + Khalidiya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khalidiya scores more
54%
level
24%
Al Najma scores more
22%

Khalidiya at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khalidiya 2–1 Al Najma

Khalidiya beat Al Najma 2-1 in Premier League on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.