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Khalidiya vs Al Ahli Doha — AFC Cup 2018

Khalidiya
Khalidiya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahli Doha
Al Ahli Doha
10/29/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Al Muharraq Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Khalidiya52%
×Draw22%
Al Ahli Doha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalidiya
1.90
Al Ahli Doha
1.29

Khalidiya creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Khalidiya
2.00
Al Ahli Doha
1.20

allows per match

Khalidiya
1.38
Al Ahli Doha
1.80

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par
Al Ahli Doha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Al Ahli Doha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw
74%
Khalidiya or Al Ahli Doha
78%
Draw or Al Ahli Doha
48%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+
29%
Al Ahli Doha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals
85%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
56%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
29%
Al Ahli Doha 1+ goals
72%
Al Ahli Doha 2+ goals
37%
Al Ahli Doha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)
66%
Al Ahli Doha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Al Ahli Doha away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 2.00 + Al Ahli Doha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Al Ahli Doha attack 1.20 + Khalidiya defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khalidiya scores more
52%
level
22%
Al Ahli Doha scores more
26%

Khalidiya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khalidiya vs Al Ahli Doha

Al Ahli Doha beat Khalidiya 2-1 in AFC Cup on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Al Muharraq Stadium in Arad.