Khaleej Sart 2–2 Shabaab al Jabal: Result & Stats

Khaleej Sart

FT

2 – 2

Shabaab al Jabal

1/14/2022

Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Khaleej Sart51%

×Draw25%

Shabaab al Jabal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khaleej SartExpected goals in this matchShabaab al Jabal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Khaleej Sart

1.60

Shabaab al Jabal

1.00

Khaleej Sart creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.42

creates per match

0.79

1.21

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Khaleej Sart

1.42

Shabaab al Jabal

0.79

allows per match

Khaleej Sart

1.21

Shabaab al Jabal

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Shabaab al Jabal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw

76%

Khaleej Sart or Shabaab al Jabal

75%

Draw or Shabaab al Jabal

49%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+

27%

Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals

80%

Khaleej Sart 2+ goals

47%

Khaleej Sart 3+ goals

22%

Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals

63%

Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals

26%

Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)

68%

Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Shabaab al Jabal away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more

51%

level

25%

Shabaab al Jabal scores more

24%

Khaleej Sart at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khaleej Sart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff