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Khaleej Sart vs Al-Suqoor — Premier League 2019

Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Suqoor
Al-Suqoor
2/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Khaleej Sart54%
×Draw24%
Al-Suqoor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khaleej Sart
1.67
Al-Suqoor
0.97

Khaleej Sart creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 35 away

creates per match

Khaleej Sart
1.42
Al-Suqoor
0.74

allows per match

Khaleej Sart
1.21
Al-Suqoor
1.91

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par
Al-Suqoor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Al-Suqoor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw
78%
Khaleej Sart or Al-Suqoor
76%
Draw or Al-Suqoor
46%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
29%
Al-Suqoor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
81%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
50%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
23%
Al-Suqoor 1+ goals
62%
Al-Suqoor 2+ goals
25%
Al-Suqoor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
71%
Al-Suqoor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Al-Suqoor away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Al-Suqoor defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al-Suqoor attack 0.74 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more
54%
level
24%
Al-Suqoor scores more
22%

Khaleej Sart at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Khaleej Sart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khaleej Sart vs Al-Suqoor

Khaleej Sart and Al-Suqoor drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 14, 2025.