Khaleej Sart 1–2 Al Afriqi Derna SC: Result & Stats

Khaleej Sart

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1/23/2026

Premier League · Group D - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Khaleej Sart32%

×Draw25%

Al Afriqi Derna SC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khaleej SartExpected goals in this matchAl Afriqi Derna SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.54

Khaleej Sart

1.28

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1.54

Al Afriqi Derna SC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.86

1.21

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Khaleej Sart

1.42

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1.86

allows per match

Khaleej Sart

1.21

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Al Afriqi Derna SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Al Afriqi Derna SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw

57%

Khaleej Sart or Al Afriqi Derna SC

75%

Draw or Al Afriqi Derna SC

68%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+

14%

Al Afriqi Derna SC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals

72%

Khaleej Sart 2+ goals

37%

Khaleej Sart 3+ goals

14%

Al Afriqi Derna SC 1+ goals

79%

Al Afriqi Derna SC 2+ goals

45%

Al Afriqi Derna SC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)

42%

Al Afriqi Derna SC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Al Afriqi Derna SC away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Al Afriqi Derna SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Al Afriqi Derna SC attack 1.86 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more

32%

level

25%

Al Afriqi Derna SC scores more

43%

Al Afriqi Derna SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Afriqi Derna SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff